Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model

This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use

Modeling Active Region Evolution - A New LWS TR and T Strategic Capability Model Suite

In 2006 the LWS TR&T Program funded us to develop a strategic capability model of slowly evolving coronal active regions. In this poster we report on the overall design, and status of our new modeling suite. Our design features two coronal field models, a non-linear force free field model and a global 3D MHD code. The suite includes supporting tools and a user friendly GUI which will enable users to query the web for relevant magnetograms, download them, process them to synthesize a sequence of photospheric magnetograms and associated photospheric flow field which can then be applied to drive the coronal model innner boundary, run the coronal models and finally visualize the results

Validation of Community Models: Identifying Events in Space Weather Model Timelines

I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized

Effects of Spatial Gradients on Electron Runaway Acceleration

The runaway process is known to accelerate electrons in many laboratory plasmas and has been suggested as an acceleration mechanism in some astrophysical plasmas, including solar flares. Current calculations of the electron velocity distributions resulting from the runaway process are greatly restricted because they impose spatial homogeneity on the distribution. We have computed runaway distributions which include consistent development of spatial gradients in the energetic tail. Our solution for the electron velocity distribution is presented as a function of distance along a finite length acceleration region, and is compared with the equivalent distribution for the infinitely long homogenous system (i.e., no spatial gradients), as considered in the existing literature. All these results are for the weak field regime. We also discuss the severe restrictiveness of this weak field assumption

Comparative Validation of Realtime Solar Wind Forecasting Using the UCSD Heliospheric Tomography Model

The University of California, San Diego 3D Heliospheric Tomography Model reconstructs the evolution of heliospheric structures, and can make forecasts of solar wind density and velocity up to 72 hours in the future. The latest model version, installed and running in realtime at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), analyzes scintillations of meter wavelength radio point sources recorded by the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory(STELab) together with realtime measurements of solar wind speed and density recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer(ACE) Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor(SWEPAM).The solution is reconstructed using tomographic techniques and a simple kinematic wind model. Since installation, the CCMC has been recording the model forecasts and comparing them with ACE measurements, and with forecasts made using other heliospheric models hosted by the CCMC. We report the preliminary results of this validation work and comparison with alternative models

Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections using the WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model

The combination of the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA‐ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA‐ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth\u27s magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock‐angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.Abstract © AG

Three-dimensional adaptive evolution of gravitational waves in numerical relativity

Adaptive techniques are crucial for successful numerical modeling of gravitational waves from astrophysical sources such as coalescing compact binaries, since the radiation typically has wavelengths much larger than the scale of the sources. We have carried out an important step toward this goal, the evolution of weak gravitational waves using adaptive mesh refinement in the Einstein equations. The 2-level adaptive simulation is compared with unigrid runs at coarse and fine resolution, and is shown to track closely the features of the fine grid run.Comment: REVTeX, 7 pages, including three figures; submitted to Physical Review

Transitioning Models and Model Output to Space Weather Operations: Challenges and Opportunities

The transition of space weather models or of information derived from space weather models to space weather forecasting is the last step of the chain from model development to model deployment in forecasting operations. As such, it is an extremely important element of the quest to increase our national capability to forecast and mitigate space weather hazards. It involves establishing customer requirements, and analyses of available models, which are, in principle, capable of delivering the required product. Models will have to be verified and validated prior to a selection of the best performing model. Further considerations include operational hardware, and the availability of data streams to drive the model. The final steps include the education of forecasters, and the implementation on gateway hardware prior to operational use. This presentation will provide a discussion of opportunities for rapid progress from the viewpoint of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center